Update: May 26, 2009
H1N1: US RATES STILL SLOWING, BUT MORE FATALITIES
As previously reported, the rate of spread of the Novel-H1N1 virus appears
to be slowing somewhat in the United States and Mexico,
though experts see increasing rates in the Asian theater
and expect cases to rise in the Southern Hemisphere as
they are now entering their typical "flu season."
Completely in the realm of the expected, there are new fatalities
to report both in the US and around the world. But those
deaths, in relation to the total number of cases, show
this flu virus to be a relatively mild strain - so far.
Also, "so far," virtually all cases of fatality involve
people who had underlying serious health conditions that
mortally compromised their ability to fight off any strain
of influenza.
The statistics for May 25, as shown this morning on the CDC web
site: The US now has confirmed cases of Novel-H1N1 infection
in 48 states, totalling 6,764 cases and 10 deaths. (CBS
television's The Early Show reported 11 US deaths this
morning; that tally will likely be displayed at the CDC
site when they commit their daily updates later today.)
May 22-25 Update:
H1N1: TRANSITION PERIOD FOR GLOBAL SPREAD, OR DO STANDARD MODELS STILL
APPLY?
The rate of spread for the Novel-H1N1 flu virus is slowing in the US
and Mexico, while Asia sees no similar slowdown and
health officials are left speculating on various
possible contradictions in standard-model flu trends.
About the slowing trend in the North American Hemisphere: While typical
"flu seasons" would already have ended even before
this newest flu strain started its spread in the
Northern Hemisphere, periods of warmest weather invariably
signal the end of more typical flu seasons. As the
Northern Hemisphere climate is more fully transitioning
to its summer season, scientists wonder if this climatic
transition is in part responsible for the recent
slowing trend in the spread of the virus in this
hemisphere.
Of course the Asian continent and associated island groups (including
Japan, the Phillipines, etc.) also reside in the
Northern Hemisphere, and they can report no such
slowdown in the virus' spread at this time. Health
scientists are being especially challenged to understand
or predict the Novel-H1N1 virus, since its most common
feature is that it apparently refuses to follow common
global influenza behavior modeling.
The scientists are also closely monitoring the various countries in
the Southern Hemisphere for establishment or spread
of this particular flu strain, since the Southern
Hemisphere is just now entering its typical flu season.
For example, Australia is currently reporting eight
confirmed cases on that continent as of yesterday,
and other reports in the Southern Hemisphere appear
similarly sparse at this time. No country on the
African continent has yet been able to confirm any cases
of H1N1 infection.
Another major concern relates to whether cases of this strain will diminish
during the Northern Hemisphere's summer months only
to resurge during the "regular" flu season starting
in the north's fall months. The single greatest impact
of all this uncertainty directly affects makers of
anti-flu innoculations, since they are now unsure
whether to create innoculations against this novel
strain, or make innoculations against the more normal-trending
strains as is their usual practice. Various health
scientists have pointed out that these drug manufacturers
don't have the resources, whether material or time,
to create innoculations against this and the more
normal-trending strains.
And, for innoculations to be ready in time for the next Northern Hemisphere
flu season, such decisions need to be made fairly
soon.
H1N1 in the United States: As of yesterday, there are now 5,764 confirmed
cases in 48 states, with a ninth US death reported
from Missouri.
* The extended period of these updates is due to the fact the Tribal
Operations offices will be closed for the United
States' Memorial Day observances.
May 21 Update:
H1N1 SPREAD SLOWING, STILL MORE FATALITIES
Today's H1N1 flu update is a mix of apparent contradictions. Even while
a high official in the World Health Organization said
they would raise the pandemic alert level to "6" -
a full-on pandemic - if the disease's spread continues
at similar levels in another week, the infection rate
in the US appears to be slowing somewhat.
That the disease's spread appears slowing offers no solace in the fact
that as many as four more US deaths are now attributed
to this disease. The Centers
for Disease Control's web site only show eight
flu-related deaths in the US (up two from the day before),
but it was reported on a news segment of CBS' The
Early Show this
morning there are now 10 US flu-related deaths. There
is very likely no conflict between CDC numbers and CBS's
report, since the CDC updates the statistics on its web
site later in the day and the data appearing there right
now are actually dated Tuesday, May 20.
Michigan's Isabella County, adjacent to the Saginaw Chippewa Indian
Tribe's Isabella Reservation, is also now reporting its
first confirmed case of Novel-H1N1 infection, as reported
by the Central Michigan
District Health Department. According to local news reporting, authorities
are no longer recommending that schools close to prevent
spread of the disease, since it appears no worse than
typical flu-season strains but, as is always the case
with any flu variant, the youngest, oldest and chronically
ill are always at highest risk and should take the greatest
precautions.
The stats, as reported by the CDC as of this update: 5,710 reported cases
in 48 states with 8 (10?) confirmed fatalities.
May 20 Update:
ANOTHER DEATH IN ARIZONA
No human against human war has ever claimed as many lives as this never
ending struggle between humans and the very smallest
life forms on this planet. The current battle, pitting
the Novel-H1N1 influenza virus against humans (and some
swine and even a few birds), has claimed another human
casualty in Arizona.
That battle damage can be prevented by measures as simple as habitual
hand washing is something that can not be over-emphasized.
As has been pointed out in previous reports, there is
a fair amount of prevention information available through
the Centers for Disease Control web site (the link to
that site if found on this page).
The following list is taken directly from their site:
What You Can Do to Stay Healthy
- Stay informed. [The
CDC] web site will be updated regularly as information
becomes available.
- Influenza is thought to spread mainly person-to-person through coughing or sneezing of infected people.
- Take everyday actions to stay healthy.
- Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze. Throw the tissue in the trash after you use it.
- Wash your hands often with soap and water, especially after you cough or sneeze. Alcohol-based hands cleaners are also effective.
- Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Germs spread that way.
- Stay home if you get sick. CDC recommends that you stay home
from work or school and limit contact with others to keep from infecting them.
- Follow public health advice regarding school closures, avoiding crowds and other social distancing measures.
- Find healthy ways to deal with stress and anxiety.
Daily statistics: There are, as of yesterday's CDC tally, 5,469 confirmed
H1N1 cases in 48 of the 50 United States. The total US death toll now
stands at six.
May 19 Update:
H1N1 CLAIMS 1 MORE LIFE IN TEXAS
One thing is certain: Spread of this Novel-H1N1 flu outbreak is not
slowing down - and it has claimed one
more life in Texas (now totaling 5 US
deaths). However, the newly reported
5th death of a Texas man suffering an
underlying heart condition actually occurred
several days before. It was only confirmed
last Friday that he was sick with the
H1N1 virus, and it was the presence of
this additional illness that mortally
pushed his health past the brink.
According to the World Health Organization, the H1N1 flu has so far
killed 65 people worldwide, including 60 in
Mexico, and sickened more than 6,500
people in 33 countries. By comparison,
outbreaks of seasonal influenza kill
as many as 500,000 people worldwide each
year. Two to three million more people
suffer severe illness from influenza.
Combining the fact that mild cases of this new strain appear
to be experienced without accompanying fever (see May 18 update below)
means this outbreak may already be somewhat-to-very under-reported.
Still, health officials urge the public not to feel complacent because
of the apparent mildness of this strain so far, and to continue practicing
the preventive measure of frequent hand-washing and limiting exposure
to those who may already be affected by this virus.
The simple fact that this strain is appearing at a very unusual time
for flu outbreaks adds a high level of
uncertainty about its potential impact
down the road. Whether it will go into
a period of dormancy or not, only to
re-emerge during a more normal "flu season,"
or whether it will linger are questions
to which medical care professionals and
scientists are attempting to divine answers.
And the answers to such questions will
directly impact what types of flu vaccines
will be produced and when they will be most
needed by the public as we move forward
through this contagion.
Daily Stats: According to the CDC, as of yesterday the US now has
5,123 confirmed cases in 48 states, and
the 5 deaths that were mentioned above.
May 18 Update:
H1N1 NOT ALWAYS ACCOMPANIED BY FEVER
An noted in a report no NPR's Morning Edition this morning, there
are a few things we are learning from the current outbreak
of Novel-H1N1 influenza (note: The
transcript of this radio report is available on the NPR
web site). One section of this report states:
NPR MORNING EDITION, MAY 18, 2009 "SWINE FLU: HOW WORRIED SHOULD
WE BE?" by Richard Knox
Dr. Richard Wenzel of Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond came
back from Mexico City last week with a troubling bit of news. He consulted
with fellow specialists in infectious disease at Mexico's leading respiratory
disease hospital.
"A third of the patients with the milder sort of disease - relatively
so, but [those who] got admitted - had no fever on admission," Wenzel
says. "And about half of those never developed a fever. And that's a
surprise for those of us who think that flu always causes fever.
And, what that means is this particular strain of flu may be
under-reported or under-diagnosed. People could
go to work or school feeling achy, a bit off, snuffly,
sneezy, congested, etc., and without the presence of
a fever they may pass it off as allergies, changes in
the weather, having a cold or other maladies. Problems
arise if they are actually suffering a mild form of
this flu and spreading it because they feel complacent
about the symptoms.
However, the overall report suggests that - so far - the Novel-H1N1 flu
virus is not making people any more sick than any other
common variety flu. The thing that grabs the most attention
of the scientists is how this flu appeared
at an odd time compared to the usual rounds made by such
viruses.
Simple Stats Update:
There are now 4,714 cases of Novel-H1N1 flu confirmed-or-probable in 47
states (Michigan reporting 142 cases) and with the sad
addition of one more death (a total of 4 so far; 2 in
Texas, 1 in Washington state and 1 in Arizona).
The CDC now also offers exhaustive (and somewhat dense) statistical
weekly analyses of this ongoing outbreak on their web site.